Traders & Investors Club

New article as of 08 May 2011: EUR/USD in a long term downtrend?!

In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis

We may have a TECHNICAL METHOD telling us what to do and giving us the POTENTIAL to generate consistent results. MENTAL ERRORS like hesitating and getting in too late or jumping the gun and getting in too soon etc. are the result of THINKING, BELIEVING or ASSUMING that our technical method is telling us what is going to happen next on a trade by trade basis, and not understanding that technical methods are not designed to do that. Technical methods and patterns are designed to put the ODDS of SUCCESS in our favour over a SERIES of trades. The outcome of the signals generated by any technical  method on a trade by trade basis are unique and RANDOM, in other words, there is no way to know in advance what the outcome to any particular signal will be or what the SEQUENCE of wins and losses will be over a series of trades.

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypCjoH1EsQ4