Traders & Investors Club

This presentation was originally delivered by Kevin Barry of the Traders & Investors Club at the World Money Show in London in November 2012.

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money_show_nov_2012_pdf.pdf

 As Market Roundup fans will know, we have repeatedly referred to bond yields to illustrate that the scare-mongering around impending hyper-inflation was always something of a crock. 

The fact is that deleveraging continues apace and deflation is the beast in

When establishing a vineyard, the grower will plant a rose bush at the end of every row of vines.

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120522_market_roundup.pdf

However, we are not hanging up our bear suits just yet. A significant technical warning sign is currently flashing in the shape of divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial and Transport indices.

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market_roundup.pdf

Inevitably, the Chinese construction and real estate boom may well be over. The knock-on effect will have global implications, for example, a falling demand for iron ore, copper, lumber and manpower. Losses on real estate-related investment will damage consumer confidence and undermine the domestic demand for Western imports.

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120117_market_roundup.pdf

From a technical perspective, all will be revealed very soon. There is a significant triangle formation in progress, the breakout of which will determine the direction of the market until Santa appears in the fireplace.

Since last we met, the US Dollar has broken out to the upside of the trading range within which it had been languishing for the past six months. Of course, the Eurozone crisis is positive for the Dollar and Kevin does not discount the possibility that we could see Euro/Dollar parity over the long term.

But surely the Dollar is a basket case? Everybody knows that.

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Market Roundup SLides

Kevin remains firmly bearish on both the stock market and the commodities sector.

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market_roundup_110820.pdf

We began the month with the stock market putting in a sterling run up on the news that an insolvent country with debts that can never be repaid, whose Government gives a nod and a wink to widespread tax-avoidance and endemic corruption is going to be lent more money. Fakelaki all round.

The gold rally in early June failed to make a new high and silver and copper are also displaying signs of technical weakness along with most of the commodity sectors.

This evening, we examine these questions and look at ways that we as traders and investors can protect and grow our portfolios in these 'exciting' times. We are now in uncharted territory; could this actually be a once-in-a-lifetime trading opportunity?

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Presentation Slide Set